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2012 Predictions for eBooks Part One

There are many predictions about the year 2012. The Mayan Calendar ends on December 21, 2012 and this is predictec the day the world is going to end. Nostradamus made cataclysmic predictions regarding 2012. It is predicted that 2012 will bring world wide food shortages, economic collapse, the looming totalitarianism. Summer Olympics in London, the Queen of England celebrates her Diamond Jubilee and World War III. Bible prophecy is coming to pass around us as well as the Presidential election for the United States.

So what are the predictions for eBook readers? These predictions are overwhelmingly exciting and positive for many industries. And what does 2012 hold for authors? Thomas Umstattd wanted to know so he asked experts from across the book publishing industry. He did not let them see each others predictions so pay attention to the duplicate predictions and has allowed us to share his findings (predictions) with you.

PART ONE:

Let us start with 2012 eBook Sales:

“I believe we will see a steady increase in ebook sales, even on front list titles and it will become an increasingly important facet of a publisher’s strategy.” - Steve Laube, President of Steve Laube Agency.

“eBook sales will double in 2012 from their 2011 numbers.” - Thomas Umstattd, Author Media CEO

“E-books will exceed 50% market share in US fiction.” - Randy Ingermanson, Founder of Advanced Fiction Writing.

“I anticipate that we’ll see the percentage of ebook sales climb from 20-30% of the business to almost 50%.” - Julie Gwinn, Editor B&H Publishing Group

What about 2012 eBook Wars

“I predict that traditional publishing houses will continue to miss the ebook boat and alienate more authors in the process. Theirs is a model that cannot fit the new paradigm, but most have too much invested in the old way to make the sweeping changes they’d need to make in order to survive. So they will keep playing violin as the Titanic goes down.” - Jeff Gerke, Founder of Marcher Lord Press

Let us examine the eBook Technology

“I predict that the e-book revolution will continue, with enhanced “transmedia” e-books beginning to become all the rage by the second half of 2012.” - Jeff Gerke, Editor

“I see enhanced eBooks as the next “big thing.” Readers will want to interact with the content, being able to pull up maps, videos, Scripture, resources, etc. as they are reading along.” - Julie Gwinn, Editor, B&H Publishing Group

“I don’t think the technology of eBooks will change significantly in 2012. Enhanced eBooks won’t increase sales enough to justify the cost of production. A few publishers will try them and then abandon the effort after taking significant losses.” - Thomas Umstattd, Author Media CEO

“The one change I anticipate is that eBooks will become more social. Soon readers will see their eReaders as places to connect with other book readers. In other words, your Kindle will come with a global book discussion for each book built into the experience.” - Thomas Umstattd, Author Media CEO

What will happen to eBook Prices & Royalties?

“EITHER the Big Six publishers will begin offering standard royalty rates on e-books of at least 40% OR more A-list authors will begin self-publishing e-books.” - Randy Ingermanson, Author

“Authors will stop signing contracts that include an exclusivity agreement with their publisher. This isn’t so much a prediction as it is an acknowledgement of what has already happened and that the scales will tip from a few authors self-publishing additional content to add to their traditional output, to the majority of authors. Yeah, I think getting $2.99 of 6,000 book sold rivals getting .80 cents of 20,000 books sold. (Six thousand books at $2.99 = $17,940. 20,000 at .80 cents = $16,000.)” - Jim Rubart, Author & Marketer

“Novice writers will continue to flood the market with inexpensive e-books priced between $0.99 and $2.99. Most of these e-books will continue to not sell very well because the reading public will continue to prefer high quality to low prices.

Traditional publishers will lower their prices on e-books to $9.99, because they’ll realize that earning 70% of $9.99 is better than earning 35% of $14.99. Midlist authors who have been traditionally published in the past and who are now self-publishing e-books will raise their prices to the mid-range ($3.99 to $6.99) so as to avoid being confused with the zillions of low-quality books priced at $0.99 and below. They will find that they sell better at a higher price, as long as they stay a bit below the $9.99 price point that will be favored by traditional publishers.

To summarize: a pricing structure will emerge in which price is proportional to quality. The market will reward books that are priced “correctly” on the price-quality curve and the market will punish those books that are priced either too high or too low.” - Randy Ingermanson, Author

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