I just got back from the 2008 LA conference.

Yikes! Talk about writer's cramp. I filled a notebook with notes. I need to start taking a laptop with me.

I have several things to tell you.

Where to start? Hmmm. I have it: Adam Rex is adorable. Heh heh

OK sorry. I will tell you something that matters to writers.

Arthur Levine says that picture books are too still being published, despite the gloomy predictions of the naysayers.

Some facts and figures from Arthur:

In 1996 when the picture book market was very strong, there were 19,586,000 kids between the ages of four and eight in the US. In 2006 there were 19,811,000. Same sized audience available to buy picture books, Arthur says.

Why the decline in willingness to publish PB's then?

There are fewer indy sellers.

Mr. Levine explained the importance of the independent bookseller. With Barnes and Noble you have one national buyer. If he doesn't like your book it's not going to get into any of his stores. With indy sellers each one has an opinion and each opinion counts. So you might not get into the big box stores, but if a bunch of indy sellers like your book and they start hand-selling it, you can still break out.

Picture books, in particular are hand-sold. And big chain stores don't hand-sell, typically.

The problem is that in 1996 there were roughly 4,500 indy sellers and in 2006 that number had gone down to somewhere around 1,500. Yikes! There was a loss of 2,840 indy bookstores between 1996 and 2006.

Is there any good news for PB authors?

There is.

In 1996, when picture books were king, there were 586 new PB's slated for publication. In 2008, when industry insiders are saying PB's are dead, there are 524 new PB's slated for publication. So dead apparently doesn't mean dead. It merely means a slight decline.

Levine also said that when he asked the purchaser for Scholastic book sales (the sales in the school book fairs) how PB's were doing, she told him they were the number 2 seller, out of 30,000 categories. (Are there really 30,000 categories or did I hear something wrong there?) And that they came in just behind school supplies. She said they sell more than 12,000,000 PB's a year at their school book fairs.

Following your passion is a good thing.

Levine encouraged his listeners to take risks and to change the face of the publishing landscape.

He ended by telling us how in 1997 the market was dead for hardcover middle grade novels. There was, apparently, no audience for such books. Book stores were positive they couldn't sell them. Publishers didn't want them.

Mr. Levine was riding in an elevator with a woman who claimed that the only thing for publishers to do was to tighten their belts and take the conservative approach.

Levine said he didn't know. He was about to publish a hardback middle book.

A fantasy, no less.

By an unknown British author.

The woman assured him it would never sell.

Thank God for stubborn ones, the risk-takers, the visionaries.