On February 3, 2006, the U.S. Department of Labor issued their report on the "Employment Situation: January, 2006."
The employment picture appears to be improving somewhat, at least according to the latest U.S. Department of Labor report. The government data shows that the unemployment rate for January was 4.7%, down 0.2% from the December number of 4.9% with 190,000 non-farm jobs added to the economy (108,000 were added in December).
The question is always what is the difference between the official "unemployment rate" and the true "joblessness" rate. The process used to determine the official rate has been critizied as not including "discouraged" workers, those who have given up on their job search. It is based on sampling surveys of families and businesses, as well as the hard data from the various state employment offices about the number of people collecting unemployment compensation. In my opinion, the most significan number in that collection is the number of "new" people joining the ranks of the unemployed by registering for unemployment compensation.
A number of large layoffs were announced in late January, 2006, (Ford, Daimler/Chrylser, Electric Boat, etc.), so I expect that we will begin to see the "new" unemployed numbers begin to increase again.
In all my years of work and working with unemployed people, I have never met anyone who was included in one of the government's surveys that is the basis of the official rate.
The breakdown of unemployment in the official data is interesting, if only as a general indicator of trends. It is UP a teeny bit for teenagers in January, but down for everyone else -
By age:
By race:
Length of joblessness:
The length of time that people are unemployed appears to be getting shorter, but critics say that it doesn't accurately reflect the people who just give up and drop out of the job market. Percentage of unemployed people who had been without a job for 27 weeks or more:
Katrina Effect Continues
The December and January reports include an accounting of the people who were forced by Hurricane Katrina to evacuate their homes. It's probably a hard number to calculate, but they think that "about" 1,200,000 people (16 and over) evacuated as a result of Katrina. By December, 600,000 people had returned to their homes. In December, those who had not yet returned to their homes had a higher unemployment rate (20.7%) that those who had returned (5.6%).
In January, the difference in unemployment rates for the 2 groups (returned vs. not returned) increased, with those returning clearly finding work - 2.9% unemployment for those who were able to return to their homes vs. 26.3% unemployment for those who were not able or had not returned to their homes.
Interesting footnote in the December, 2005, report said that the Katrina data "does not include children or people residing in shtelters, hotels, places of worship" which seems like it might be a large number to be uncounted. Wonder if we'll ever know the real impact of Katrina...the economic impact will be much easier to quantify than the human one...the lives that have been lost or changed forever.
In general, except for the people effected by Katrina who have been unable to return to their homes, it looks like the unemployment picture is gradually improving. The Katrina situation still looks quite serious, however.
