Guest Author - David Landry

At last, opening day is upon us! Last year we had the World Baseball Classic as a fitting prelude to the regular season. This year we were back to the Grapefruit League and the Cactus League as the opening act. From a pure baseball standpoint there’s no comparison. The baseball played in Florida and Arizona is sub-par at best and largely meaningless. However, there are two important things to look for as the season begins – injuries and uncharacteristic slumps.

Spring Training Leagues

There are two spring training leagues. The Grapefruit League consists of the 18 teams that conduct spring training in Florida. The Cactus League consists of the 12 teams that conduct spring training in Arizona. Each league is a mix of American and National League teams. Both leagues allow the designated hitter, providing players with ample opportunities for development.

Standings are meaningless

Just to give you a sense of the predictive value of spring training league results, the Kansas City Royals finished in second place last year in the Cactus League by one game. They went on to finished the regular season with 100 losses. Similarly, Cleveland finished in third place, two games behind the Grapefruit League winner and went on to lose 84 games in the regular season.

What to look for . . .

Injuries

First, you want to look at the opening day rosters and see who is starting the season on the disabled list. Every year, several players arrive at spring training injured or become injured during training camp.

This year, there are several key players who will not be on the active roster on opening day, including Chien-Ming Wang of the Yankees, Jon Lieber and Freddy Garcia of the Phillies, Mike Timlin and Jon Lester of the Red Sox; Kenny Rogers of the Tigers; Randy Johnson of the Diamondbacks; and, Francisco Liriano of the Twins.

Uncharacteristic Slumps

Performances at the plate and on the mound through the first half of spring training are virtually meaningless. This is a period of adjustment and experimentation. Pitchers are working on their mechanics and experimenting with new pitches. Hitters, similarly, are making adjustments. After a couple of weeks this adjustment period is over and sustained slumps can be significant. Particularly if the player does not have a history of slow starts.

Noteworthy slumps this year include Ryan Howard’s recent 0-17 stint at the plate and an overall batting average in the low .200’s. He has reportedly not reacted well to this performance following an MVP year. Kyle Lohse of the Reds has slumped this year after a ripping through spring training last year with a 4-0 record. Jason Varitek continues to struggle at the plate.

With that in mind, it is time to move on to the regular season. Each team will have 162 opportunities to show their fans what they’ve got. May the best teams win!