Guest Author - David Landry

After last years 1-2-3 finish of Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox, all three teams made significant acquisitions to ensure they would be competitive again. The Yankees and Blue Jays have been plagued with injuries, while the Sox have been comparatively healthy. As a result, the Sox are on top at this point in the season, while the Jays eleven games back and the Yankees are behind by ten and a half.

Although they have some great young players, Tampa just isn’t built to compete in this division. There are several players on the Yankees with salaries that are about the same as the entire Tampa payroll. Baltimore has loosened their purse strings, but they still have significant holes and their pitching staff has been affected by injuries.
Here’s the prognosis for the three contenders. . .

Red Sox

The story for the Red Sox has been underperforming offense compensated by very good pitching.

The Sox have been comparatively healthy, with Josh Becket having just been put on the 15 day disabled list and expected to miss two starts and Jon Lester still recovering from cancer treatments. They’ve gotten by with Julian Tavares taking Lester’s place in the rotation and a couple of Rookies, Devern Hansack and Kason Gabbard filling in for Beckett.

It’s not likely they can maintain their .690 pace through the remaining three quarters of the season, but if they can remain healthy, they will finish the season in first place.

Yankees

Despite their poor record thus far, the Yankees still have a potent offense and can be expected finish better than they started. The arrival of Roger Clemens and, possibly, Philip Hughes in a couple of weeks should help stabilize their starting rotation. Wang and Pettite are pitching well and Mussina can be counted upon to be a solid third starter.

Injuries have wracked Yankees pitching. Pavano is probably out for the season. Wang, Hughes, Karstens and Rasner have all been on the DL thus far. Rasner just went out after having been strck by a batted ball. Kei Igawa, the Japanese starter the Yankees paid a $26.1 million dollar posting fee to acquire has been demoted to single A.

If the starters can recover, the relievers should stabilize and the offense will take care of the rest. They’ve scored six or more runs in six of their losses and they are back to full strength. Posada and jeter are first and second in the league for batting average and A-Rod has the most RBIs and Home Runs.

Blue Jays

I just don’t see the Jays coming back from their injury problems this season. They’ve recently lost ace Roy Halladay (out six weeks with appendicitis) and starter Victor Zambrano. Closer B.J. Ryan will be out for a couple of months too. Add to that Chacin, Glaus and Zaun and you have a recipe for disaster.

Expect the Blue Jays to lose a lot of games between now and the All Star break.

Team	Won	Lost	PCT
Boston	29	13	.690
Baltimore	19	23	.452
New York	18	23	.450
Tampa Bay	18	23	.439
Toronto	18	23	.439