Every spring, baseball players flock to Florida and Arizona to prepare themselves for the coming season. The games played in the Grapefruit League (Florida) and the Cactus League (Arizona)serve as the regular season's opening act. From a pure baseball standpoint there’s no comparison between the two. The baseball played in Florida and Arizona is sub-par at best and largely meaningless. However, there are two important things to look for as the season begins – injuries and uncharacteristic slumps.
Spring Training Leagues
There are two spring training leagues. The Grapefruit League consists of the 18 teams that conduct spring training in Florida. The Cactus League consists of the 12 teams that conduct spring training in Arizona. Each league is a mix of American and National League teams. Both leagues allow the designated hitter, providing players with ample opportunities for development.
Standings are meaningless
Just to give you a sense of the predictive value of spring training league results, the Kansas City Royals finished in second place in the Cactus League by one game in 2006. They went on to finish the regular season with 100 losses. Similarly, Cleveland finished in third place, two games behind the Grapefruit League winner and went on to lose 84 games in the regular season.
What to look for . . .
Injuries
First, you want to look at the opening day rosters and see who is starting the season on the disabled list. Every year, several players arrive at spring training injured or become injured during training camp.
In 2007, there were several key players who did not start the season on the active roster, including Chien-Ming Wang of the Yankees and Francisco Liriano of the Twins. This proved important to the eventual performance of their teams. The Yankees lost at least 8 reliable starts and had their worst spring in memory. This led to tehir forst finish below first place since 1997. Similarly, the Twins finished a distant third in their division after having won it in 2006.
Uncharacteristic Slumps
Performances at the plate and on the mound through the first half of spring training are virtually meaningless. This is a period of adjustment and experimentation. Pitchers are working on their mechanics and experimenting with new pitches. Hitters, similarly, are making adjustments. After a couple of weeks this adjustment period is over and sustained slumps can be significant. Particularly if the player does not have a history of slow starts.
